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Windows 10 Not Expected To Bump Up PC Sales in 2015

Gartner says that any boost will likely come next year.

• By Kurt Mackie
• 07/08/2015

Windows 10, the replacement for Windows 8, won't help PC sales this year, but it should help next year, according to Gartner Inc.

The research and consulting firm expects there will be a 5.7 percent decrease in overall computing device spending to $606 billion this year. The arrival of Windows 10 on July 29 won't bump up that spending, according to Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

We do not expect the global PC market to recover until 2016. The release of Windows 10 on 29th July will contribute to a slowing professional demand for mobile PCs and premium ultramobiles in 2015, as lifetimes extend by three months. However, as suppliers and buyers adjust to new prices, Windows 10 could boost replacements during 2016.

Microsoft has implied that Windows 10 devices could appear from OEMs as early as the July 29 release date for Windows 10. Market availability of Windows 10 machines, though, will depend on individual OEM plans. It's likely that OEMs will be targeting the traditional fall back-to-school time frame. Microsoft's goal is to get one billion devices running Windows 10.

The decline in computing device spending expected by Gartner is partly due to currency devaluations against the U.S. dollar. This year, 2.5 billion computer devices are expected to get shipped worldwide, representing a 1.5 increase, year over year. However, the device growth is mostly happening in the mobile phone market, which itself is slowing to 3.3 percent growth this year due to "weaker performance in China." Gartner predicts 2.4 billion mobile phones will get shipped in 2015.

The global PC market will continue its downward pace this year to 300 million units, down 4.5 percent year over year.

The "ultramobile segment," which Gartner defines as "tablets and clamshells," will decrease 5.3 percent, year over year, to 214 million units.

The data come from Gartner's publication, "Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2012-2019, 2Q15 Update," as summarized in a Gartner announcement released on Monday.